Drought Scours Mid-East and South East Asia

ROME - May 11/00 - STAT -- Severe drought is devastating crops across much of the Middle East and south-east Asia, resulting in mounting agricultural losses and local water shortages.

The drought began last year and stretches from Jordan, across Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan before sweeping across north western India into the prime agricultural producing states of Gujarat and Rajasthan.

Given the countries involved, the drought has strategic significance for pulse exporters in Canada, Turkey, the United States, Europe and Australia.

With Iran, Iraq and Jordan experiencing significant problems, regional demand for Turkish and Syrian origin chickpeas and lentils will be strong. This should limit the Turkey's ability to compete in Europe and the Indian subcontinent, driving demand to competing exporters.

As demand deepens, Canadian exporters could again see strong Turkish import demand as the country's consuming regions in the west replace merchandise shipping eastward. This would continue events seen this season.

Canadian shippers are also looking for sales of pulses to expand to Iran, following favorable experiences with shipments made this season. The problems extend across Pakistan and India, implying demand for pulses should rise. However, the fact neither country faces a fundamental food shortage and the worst affected people are the least capable of buying imported pulses.

The Indian state of Gujarat is facing the worst drought in 100 years, according to the latest situation report from the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). It has left more than half the 18,000 villages with serious water shortages, affecting an estimated 10 million people.

In addition, the majority of reservoirs in the north and western parts are reported to have become dry. Water levels in tubewells have dropped considerably.

Due to last year's poor monsoon, both Kharif (monsoon) and Rabi (winter) crop production in the state are likely to fall by around 30%. The largest decrease in production will be in rainfed coarse grains, groundnuts and lentils, which are expected to decline by 50% or more.

Other states affected by drought include Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa. In Rajasthan cereal and oilseed production are expected to fall by 23% and 17% respectively

In Madhya Pradesh, the problem appears less severe though 7 of the 45 districts, particularly those adjoining Rajasthan and Gujarat, have been affected.

In Andhra Pradesh, 18 of the 23 districts have been affected, the worst being in Telengana and Rayalaseema regions. Border areas of Orissa state have also been affected.

Orissa's problems are made worse because tidal waves initiated by last year's devastating cyclone filled soils with salt. As a result, there was no rabi crop this year and large numbers of the state's population continue to depend on food assistance provided by the Government.

From a national perspective, the drought is not expected to affect overall food production significantly as many of the areas affected do not lie in main grain production zones.

Despite the drought, the 2000-01 wheat crop, which is largely irrigated and was recently harvested, is currently estimated at around 70 million MT, similar to last year's record crop. This is mainly due to higher output in main producing states (Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh), where weather conditions were generally favourable, off-setting the decline in drought affected states.

In addition, the overall food situation remains favourable in view of sizeable stocks following favourable harvests in recent years. Government grain stocks are currently estimated at around 30 million tons, including 13.5 million MT of wheat.

In Pakistan, a serious drought has devastated the country's largest province, Baluchistan, in the west and Sindh Province in the south. The problem is expected to worsen as the monsoon season is several weeks away and little rain is forecast over that period.

The worst affected areas are reported to be around Tharparkar arid region, Kohistan and Kacho Districts of Sindh, Balochistan and Cholistan in Punjab. A number of these areas have not had appreciable rainfall in several years.

Despite the drought, Pakistan expects a near record 20 million MT wheat harvest. This is 2 million MT higher than 1999.

About 85% of the wheat crop is irrigated. This kept yields high and allowed output to rise above government targets. Not surprisingly, imports should decrease to around 1.5 million MT during the 2000-01 marketing year.

In Afghanistan, an already precarious food supply situation, on account of continued civil strife and reduced production last year, is aggravated by drought across the southern and central parts of the country.

Worst affected areas are in the provinces of Kandahar, Helmand, Zabul and Helmand. Large numbers of people who have lost their rainfed wheat crop are in need of urgent food assistance. Many have migrated to urban centres in search of water and food. There have also been extensive losses of livestock, mainly in Kandahar and Zabul provinces, due to lack of water and feed.

In 1999, total cereal production was a reduced 3.24 million MT, about 16% below the previous year's harvest, due to a severe drought and an outbreak of pests. This resulted in a cereal import requirement estimated at a record 1.1 million MT in 1999-00 marketing year (July/June).

With another drought this year, the import requirement is likely to be substantially higher. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is currently in the country to evaluate the overall food supply situation and estimate cereal import requirements for 2000-01, including food aid.

Iran is facing its second devastating drought in a row. Last year's event saw wheat production fall by over 3 million MT, or around 25%, compared to the previous year. A recurrence of widespread drought this year again threatens domestic food production.

It is estimated that some 18 of the country's 28 provinces are affected, mostly in southern, eastern and central parts. Those hardest hit include Sistan-Baluchestan, Yazd, Fars, Kohkiluyeh Boyer-ahmad, Bushehr, Hormuzgan, Kerman and Khuzestan.

Although limited rainfall in late March brought some relief to crops in west-central parts, it was insufficient to improve overall prospects. The impact of this year's drought is likely to be exacerbated by already low water reserves in dams and reservoirs, following the severe water shortage last year.

Moreover, the effects of the drought may be worse than last year, which was already the worst rainfall year in 30 years, as official reports indicate that the amount of rainfall in the seven months to April was some 25% down on the same period in 1998/99.

Consequently, current prospects suggest that wheat production may fall even below the 8.7 million MT officially estimated in 1999. Wheat is normally planted in October/November and harvested in June/July.

The outlook is also unfavourable for barley. This will have a serious impact on vulnerable groups, particularly in rural areas, who have limited alternative sources of income and incurred heavy losses last year. Already many villagers have begun panic selling of livestock and are reportedly leaving their homes .

In 1999-00 the country was one of the largest importers of wheat in the world, with imports reaching almost 7 million MT, similar to record imports of 1996-97, which was also affected by drought. Reduced production again this year means that imports in 2000-01, are likely to exceed those in 1999-00.

In Iraq, drought reduced cultivated area and hurt the 2000 cereal crops. Reports indicate that the Tigris and Euphrates rivers have dropped to about 20% of their average flow, seriously constraining irrigated production which constitutes more than 70% of cultivated area. In addition, serious shortages of essential agricultural inputs are also hindering normal production.

In 1999, similar drought conditions and widespread incidence of pests and weeds reduced cereal output by nearly 40% compared to the average for the previous five years. The effect on livestock, already weakened by foot and mouth disease, was also very serious.

In December 1999, the UN Security Council approved the seventh phase of the "oil-for-food" programme from January to June, which anticipates oil revenues of US$5.26 billion, to buy food, medicines and health supplies, and for emergency repairs to infrastructure. An FAO/WFP/WHO/UNICEF Food and Nutrition Assessment Mission is currently in the country to assess the food supply situation as well as nutrition and health conditions.

In Jordan, prospects for the 2000 wheat and barley crops, for harvest in May/June, are poor due to a prolonged drought that delayed sowing. This is in the wake of the severe drought in 1999 that seriously affected cereal and horticultural crops, and resulted in a decline of 88% in aggregate wheat and barley output to only 13 000 MT.

An Emergency Operation worth some US$4 million was jointly approved by FAO and WFP in July 1999 for food assistance to 180 000 affected people, for a period of eight months.