STAT Communications Ag Market News

USDA Lifts Winter Wheat Yield

WASHINGTON - Jul 12/24 - SNS -- Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.34 billion bushels, up 4% from the June 1 forecast and up 7% from 2023, according to the USDA

As of July 1, the United States yield is forecast at 52.0 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushel from last month and up 1.4 bushels from last year's average yield of 50.6 bushels per acre.

Hard Red Winter production, at 763 million bushels, is up 5% from last month. Soft Red Winter, at 344 million bushels, is up less than 1% from the June forecast. White Winter, at 234 million bushels, is up 4% from last month. Of the White Winter production, 19.0 million bushels are Hard White and 215 million bushels are Soft White.

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the six Hard Red Winter States (Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas) are above last year's levels in Kansas, Montana, and Nebraska, but below last year's level in Colorado, Oklahoma, and Texas. As of June 30, harvest progress was ahead of normal in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. Harvest had not yet begun in Montana as of June 30.

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the three Soft Red Winter States (Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio) are above last year's levels in all three States. As of June 30, harvest progress was ahead of the 5-year average pace in Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio.

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in Washington are above last year. Forty-eight% of the Washington acreage was rated in good to excellent condition as of June 30.

Beginning in 2024, estimates for winter wheat were discontinued in New Jersey.


Winter Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2023 and
Forecasted July 1, 2024
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :  Area harvested   :       Yield per acre       :      Production
                :------------------------------------------------------------------------
      State     :         :         :        :       2024        :           :
                :  2023   :  2024   :  2023  :-------------------:   2023    :   2024
                :         :         :        : June 1  : July 1  :           :
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :    1,000 acres       ------- bushels -------     --- 1,000 bushels ---
                :
Arkansas .......:    165        95     57.0     50.0      50.0         9,405       4,750
California .....:     80        75     80.0     82.0      82.0         6,400       6,150
Colorado .......:  1,820     1,830     41.0     41.0      39.0        74,620      71,370
Idaho ..........:    630       690     89.0     85.0      85.0        56,070      58,650
Illinois .......:    780       700     87.0     82.0      83.0        67,860      58,100
Indiana ........:    335       250     92.0     86.0      87.0        30,820      21,750
Kansas .........:  5,750     7,150     35.0     40.0      43.0       201,250     307,450
Kentucky .......:    460       410     88.0     83.0      77.0        40,480      31,570
Maryland .......:    195       175     85.0     82.0      71.0        16,575      12,425
Michigan .......:    560       375     83.0     87.0      89.0        46,480      33,375
                :
Missouri .......:    600       520     70.0     68.0      70.0        42,000      36,400
Montana ........:  1,680     1,900     51.0     51.0      48.0        85,680      91,200
Nebraska .......:    880       900     42.0     50.0      54.0        36,960      48,600
North Carolina .:    400       320     70.0     60.0      58.0        28,000      18,560
Ohio ...........:    590       460     90.0     83.0      89.0        53,100      40,940
Oklahoma .......:  2,450     2,700     28.0     38.0      39.0        68,600     105,300
Oregon .........:    725       715     56.0     70.0      71.0        40,600      50,765
Pennsylvania ...:    230       160     76.0     77.0      77.0        17,480      12,320
South Dakota ...:    700       780     47.0     54.0      57.0        32,900      44,460
Tennessee ......:    390       310     80.0     76.0      76.0        31,200      23,560
                :
Texas ..........:  2,100     2,450     37.0     34.0      32.0        77,700      78,400
Virginia .......:    135        85     78.0     70.0      66.0        10,530       5,610
Washington .....:  1,750     1,790     54.0     64.0      68.0        94,500     121,720
Wisconsin ......:    230       190     76.0     79.0      79.0        17,480      15,010
                :
Other States 1/ :  1,048       778     58.3     56.2      55.0        61,058      42,820
                :
United States ..: 24,683    25,808     50.6     51.4      52.0     1,247,748   1,341,255
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ For 2023, other States include Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, Mississippi, New Jersey,
   New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Carolina, Utah, and Wyoming. For 2024, other
   States include Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, Mississippi, New Mexico, New York, North
   Dakota, South Carolina, Utah, and Wyoming. Individual State level estimates will be
   published in the "Small Grains 2024 Summary."

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