Canadian Field Crop Output Rising

OTTAWA - Aug 28/24 - SNS -- Overall field crop prodiuctuion in Canada is expected to be up over last year, led by gains in wheat, canola, oats, soybeans, peas and lentils, according to Statistics Canada's preliminary model based estimates.

Based its forecasts on yield model estimates derived from satellite imagery and agroclimatic data, Statistics Canada noted, "Increased production for almost all crops is expected to be driven by higher yields because of overall better growing conditions in Western Canada as of the end of July, compared with a year earlier. However, a lack of moisture and high temperatures in some parts of the Prairies continued to be a cause for concern."

However, the agency added that while lower-than-average precipitation and prolonged high temperatures across western Canada resulted in a decline in crop conditions from the beginning of the season, conditions were up in some areas compared with a year earlier. In Alberta, provincial reports indicated that more than half (55%) of the total crop was rated as being in good to excellent condition at the end of July, below the five-year average of 57%, but ahead of the same period in 2023. In Saskatchewan, dry conditions continued to be a concern. Provincial reports from Manitoba indicated that crop conditions in the province were generally good.

Quebec and the Atlantic provinces have experienced warmer weather and less rainfall than average since the beginning of the growing season, while in Ontario, excessive moisture continued to be a concern in some areas.

Crop conditions revealed by satellite and agroclimatic data were used to develop a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index. It indicated that overall plant health in the Prairie provinces ranged from much lower than normal to similar to normal at the end of July, indicating the possibility of yields ranging from much lower than normal to similar to normal.

Higher Oilseed Yields

Canadian canola and soybean production is expected to up over last year, with this year's canola harvest expected to increase by 1.6% to 19.5 million metric tons (MT) in 2024. This increase in production is anticipated to be driven by higher yields, which are projected to jump by 1.8% to 39.4 bushels per acre, while harvested area is expected to edge down by 0.4% to 21.8 million acres.

Saskatchewan is expected to produce 2.9% more canola in 2024 than in 2023, at 10.6 million MT. Yields are projected to increase by 5.4% to 39.0 bushels per acre, while harvested area is expected to decline by 2.3% to 12.0 million acres.

Production in Alberta is expected to increase by 2.4% to 5.7 million MT. The increase is the result of anticipated higher yields (+2.0% to 39.9 bushels per acre), while harvested area is projected to remain unchanged (6.3 million acres).

In Manitoba, yields are expected to decrease by 9.0% to 40.3 bushels per acre, while harvested area is anticipated to rise 5.7% to 3.3 million acres, resulting in a 3.8% production decrease to 3.0 million MT.

Nationally, soybean production is projected to increase by 2.4% year over year to 7.1 million MT in 2024. Yields are expected to rise by 0.4% to 46.1 bushels per acre, while harvested area is anticipated to increase by 2.0% to 5.7 million acres.

Production in Ontario is expected to rise by 6.9% to 4.3 million MT. Harvested area is projected to increase by 7.6% to 3.1 million acres, while yields are anticipated to edge down 0.6% to 51.1 bushels per acre.

In Manitoba, production is projected to decrease by 14.1% to 1.3 million MT. Harvested area is expected to fall by 11.4% to 1.4 million acres. Yields are anticipated to fall by 3.0% year over year to 35.1 bushels per acre.

In Quebec, production is projected to increase by 7.7% to 1.4 million MT on higher anticipated harvested area (+6.9% to 1.1 million acres), combined with a 0.6% expected increase in yields to 47.2 bushels per acre.

Wheat Output Up 4.3%

Nationally, wheat production is projected to grow by 4.3% year over year to 34.4 million MT in 2024. The increase is expected to be led by higher yields, which are anticipated to rise by 5.9% to 48.5 bushels per acre. Harvested area is expected to decrease by 1.6% to 26.0 million acres.

Spring wheat production is expected to fall by 0.7% to 25.4 million MT. Spring wheat yields are anticipated to increase by 2.9% to 50.3 bushels per acre, while harvested area is expected to decrease by 3.4% to 18.5 million acres.

The anticipated increase in total wheat production is largely attributable to durum wheat. Harvested area is expected to increase by 5.3% to 6.2 million acres, while yields are anticipated to increase by 39.8% to 35.8 bushels per acre, contributing to higher anticipated durum wheat production (+47.3% to 6.0 million MT).

Wheat harvested area in Saskatchewan is projected to decrease by 0.6%, while yields are expected to rise by 9.0% to 42.2 bushels per acre, resulting in an 8.4% increase in production, to 15.9 million MT.

Wheat production in Alberta is projected to increase by 9.6% to 10.2 million MT, compared with 2023. This rise is anticipated to result from higher yields (+10.7% to 49.5 bushels per acre) offsetting lower harvested area, which is expected to fall by 1.1% to 7.6 million acres.

In Manitoba, wheat harvested area is expected to decline by 2.1% to 3.2 million acres, while yields are anticipated to decrease by 1.6% to 60.3 bushels per acre. Total wheat production is anticipated to fall by 3.7% year over year to 5.2 million MT.

Wheat production in Ontario (the majority of which is winter wheat) is projected to decrease by 16.6% year over year to 2.5 million MT on lower harvested acres (-11.6%) and lower yields (-5.5%).

Smaller Coarse Grain Harvests

Nationally, corn for grain production is projected to fall by 1.2% from one year to the next to 15.2 million MT in 2024. Yield is anticipated to jump to 168.5 bushels per acre (+4.1%), while harvested area is expected to fall to 3.6 million acres (-5.2%).

In Ontario, the largest corn-for-grain-producing province, production is expected to decrease to 9.7 million MT (-3.0%) because of lower harvested area (-4.7% to 2.1 million acres), offsetting higher yields (+1.8% to 180.1 bushels per acre).

Production in Quebec is projected to rise from one year to the next by 7.3% to 3.6 million MT. Yields are expected to jump by 9.1% to 161.6 bushels per acre, while harvested area is anticipated to decrease by 1.6% to 873,800 acres.

In Manitoba, production is expected to fall by 4.8% to 1.7 million MT because of lower anticipated harvested area (-11.9% to 482,400 acres) offsetting higher expected yields (+8.0% to 138.7 bushels per acre).

Barley yields (-2.1% to 59.9 bushels per acre) are projected to fall in 2024, compared with 2023. Harvested area is anticipated to decrease by 14.3% to 5.7 million acres. As a result, barley production is expected to fall by 16.1% year over year to 7.5 million MT in 2024.

Oat production is projected to rise by 10.1% to 2.9 million MT. The increase is anticipated to be driven by higher harvested area, which is expected to rise by 14.6% to 2.3 million acres, offsetting lower yields, which are projected to fall by 3.8% year over year to 80.7 bushels per acre.

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