Overall Field Crop Output Gain in Canada

OTTAWA - Sep 16/24 - SNS -- Statistics Canada reckons recent yield model estimates using satellite imagery and agroclimatic data show that production of wheat, oats and soybeans will be up over last year, offsetting decreases in canola, corn for grain and barley.

Across parts of the Prairies, lower-than-average precipitation and prolonged high temperatures have resulted in a decline in crop conditions from the beginning of the season, although conditions were up in some areas compared with a year earlier.

In Alberta, provincial reports indicated that conditions decreased throughout the month of August, with 43% of the total crop rated as being in good to excellent condition at the end of August, down from 51% at the end of July, and below the five-year average.

In Saskatchewan, some areas have been impacted by hot and dry conditions, especially in southern parts of the province. Provincial reports from Manitoba indicated that precipitation at this time remains above average, while temperatures have been in line with normal.

In Ontario and Quebec, crops appear to be progressing well, but some areas of Ontario may have been impacted by excess moisture and high temperatures. The Atlantic provinces have experienced warmer weather and less rainfall than average since the beginning of the growing season.

Soybean Gains Offset By Canola

Nationally, soybean production is projected to increase by 3.1% year over year to 7.2 million metric tons (MT) in 2024. Yields are expected to rise by 1.1% to 46.4 bushels per acre, while harvested area is anticipated to increase by 2.0% to 5.7 million acres.

Production in Ontario is expected to rise by 6.9% to 4.3 million MT. Harvested area is projected to increase by 7.6% to 3.1 million acres, while yields are anticipated to edge down 0.6% to 51.1 bushels per acre.

In Manitoba, production is projected to decrease by 8.7% to 1.4 million MT. Harvested area is expected to fall by 11.4% to 1.4 million acres. Yields are anticipated to increase by 3.0% year over year to 37.3 bushels per acre.

In Quebec, production is projected to increase by 4.9% to 1.3 million MT on higher anticipated harvested area (+6.9% to 1.1 million acres) while yields are expected to decrease 1.9% to 46.0 bushels per acre.

This year's canola harvest is now projected to decrease by 1.1% to 19.0 million MT in 2024. This decrease in production is anticipated to be driven by lower yields, which are projected to fall by 0.8% to 38.4 bushels per acre, and harvested area is expected to edge down by 0.4% to 21.8 million acres.

Saskatchewan is expected to produce 0.4% less canola in 2024 than in 2023, at 10.3 million MT. Yields are projected to increase by 1.9% to 37.7 bushels per acre in 2024, while harvested area is expected to decline by 2.3% to 12.0 million acres.

Production in Alberta is expected to decrease by 1.7% to 5.5 million MT. The decrease is the result of anticipated lower yields (-2.0% to 38.3 bushels per acre), while harvested area is projected to remain unchanged (6.3 million acres).

In Manitoba, yields are expected to decrease by 7.4% to 41.0 bushels per acre, while harvested area is anticipated to rise 5.7% to 3.3 million acres, resulting in a 2.2% decrease in production to 3.1 million MT.

Durum Pulls Wheat Harvest Upward

Nationally, wheat production is projected to grow by 4.1% year over year to 34.3 million MT in 2024. The increase is expected to be led by higher yields, which are anticipated to rise by 5.7% to 48.4 bushels per acre. Harvested area is expected to decrease by 1.6% to 26.0 million acres.

Spring wheat production is expected to fall by 1.0% to 25.3 million MT. Spring wheat yields are anticipated to increase by 2.5% to 50.1 bushels per acre, while harvested area is expected to decrease by 3.4% to 18.5 million acres.

The anticipated increase in total wheat production is largely attributable to durum wheat. Harvested area is expected to increase by 5.3% to 6.2 million acres, while yields are anticipated to jump by 40.2% to 35.9 bushels per acre, contributing to higher anticipated durum wheat production (+47.6% to 6.0 million MT).

Wheat harvested area in Saskatchewan is projected to decrease by 0.6%, while yields are expected to rise by 9.8% to 42.5 bushels per acre, resulting in a 9.0% increase in production, to 16.0 million MT.

Wheat production in Alberta is projected to increase by 10.7% to 10.3 million MT, compared with 2023. This rise in 2024 is anticipated to result from higher yields (+12.1% to 50.1 bushels per acre) offsetting lower harvested area, which is expected to fall by 1.1% to 7.6 million acres.

In Manitoba, wheat harvested area is expected to decline by 2.1% to 3.2 million acres, while yields are anticipated to decrease by 6.9% to 57.1 bushels per acre. Total wheat production is anticipated to fall by 8.8% year over year to 5.0 million MT.

Wheat production in Ontario (the majority of which is winter wheat) is projected to decrease by 16.6% year over year to 2.5 million MT on lower harvested acres (-11.6%) and lower yields (-5.5%).

Canola production anticipated to decrease

Reduced Coarse Grain Harvest

Nationally, corn for grain production is projected to fall by 1.6% from one year earlier to 15.2 million MT in 2024. Yield is anticipated to increase to 167.8 bushels per acre (+3.7%), while harvested area is expected to fall to 3.6 million acres (-5.2%).

In Ontario, the largest corn-for-grain-producing province, production is expected to decrease to 9.6 million MT (-3.8%) because of lower harvested area (-4.7% to 2.1 million acres), offsetting higher yields (+1.0% to 178.7 bushels per acre).

Production in Quebec is projected to rise by 8.6% from 2023 to 3.6 million MT in 2024. Yields are expected to increase by 10.5% to 163.6 bushels per acre, while harvested area is anticipated to decrease by 1.6% to 873,800 acres.

In Manitoba, production is expected to fall by 6.5% to 1.7 million MT because of lower anticipated harvested area (-11.9% to 482,400 acres) offsetting higher expected yields (+6.2% to 136.3 bushels per acre).

Soybean production is expected to rise

Barley yields (-0.3% to 61.0 bushels per acre) are projected to fall in 2024, compared with 2023. Harvested area is anticipated to decrease by 14.3% to 5.7 million acres. As a result, barley production is expected to fall by 14.7% year over year to 7.6 million MT in 2024.

Oat production is projected to rise by 14.2% to 3.0 million MT. The increase is anticipated to be driven by higher harvested area, which is expected to rise by 14.6% to 2.3 million acres, offsetting lower yields, which are projected to fall by 0.4% year over year to 83.6 bushels per acre.

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